The 2020 MN Primary on August 11 is expected to produce very low turnout, especially after the historically high turnout in the 2018 Primary, which featured competitive elections in both the Republican and DFL Gubernatorial races. Other than the election in CD5 between Representative Ilhan Omar and Antone Melton-Meaux, this election lacks any high profile and expensive races above the legislative level. So, this guide seeks to help observers know what to watch for as primary results roll in.
Competitive primaries in the seats that could decide majorities
These primaries are either to pick the candidate to replace a retiring incumbent or to pick a challenger to an incumbent in swing districts around the state.
DFL PrimariesSD56: Lindsey Port vs. Kevin Shea vs. Richard TuckerSD56 covers Savage, the majority of Burnsville, and parts of Lakeville in the southern suburbs. It is currently represented by Senator Dan Hall who is one of two Republican Senators whose districts are represented by two DFL House members (the other is Paul Anderson in District 44 who is retiring ); so this is one of the districts that make the clearest path to the DFL taking the majority.
Port is the DFL endorsed candidate and the best known of the candidates. She ran for the southern B-side House seat in 2016 and founded Blueprint Campaigns following that election. She also served on the staff of Erin Murphy's Gubernatorial campaign and Dean Phillips' Congressional campaign. She is the best financed of the three candidates, though both Shea and Tucker have raised enough to run campaigns. If Port shows any vulnerability, it could be on the A-side where she has not been on the ballot before and which is dominated by Savage, where Tucker resides (Port and Shea are both from Burnsville, where a majority of voters live). (Disclosure: Lindsey Port is a 2020 client of No Coast Workshop which included some direct mail for the primary). HD04A: Heather Keeler vs. Chuck HendricksonHouse District 4A is basically the city of Moorhead, which borders Fargo, ND in northwestern Minnesota. This seat has become increasingly friendly to DFL candidates in recent years; retiring DFL Rep. Ben Lien received 65% of the vote in 2018 and DFLers swept the ballot. But, an open seat in Greater Minnesota does give Republicans hope they could steal a seat away from the DFL, especially with an unknown number of students on campus at the two colleges.
Keeler won the DFL endorsement and works in multicultural recruitment at North Dakota State University, having worked earlier in her career as the Native American liaison in the moorhead Public Schools. The House DFL People of Color and Indigenous (POCI) Caucus has grown considerably over the past few years, but Keeler would be the only Greater MN POCI member. Hendrickson currently represents the southeastern quadrant of Moorhead on the City Council and works as a technical writer and program manager. Hendrickson could run strong in his home base Fourth Ward, while Keeler is likely making a fairly even play across the whole district. Turnout on and around the two colleges will be particularly low this summer. HD51B: Liz Reyer vs. Mike MaguireDistrict 51B is made up of the city of Eagan, largely south-east of I-35E as it runs diagonally through the suburban city. Incumbent DFL Rep. Laurie Halverson opted to run for an open seat on the Dakota County Board, resulting in this Primary. The city, one of the most competitive districts a decade ago, rapidly moved to hold a strong DFL lean.
Liz Reyer, a business leader currently employed at Eagan's Blue Cross campus, received the DFL endorsement. Mike Maguire has served as Eagan's mayor since 2006 and previously sought a seat in the State Senate, but lost out to Senator Jim Carlson. In a likely low-turnout election, it will be seen whether the power of the DFL endorsement and Reyer's own first-time campaign will overcome Maguire's existing name ID advantage. The winner will take on Republican Fern Smith in November. |
GOP PrimariesHD33B: Andrew Myers vs. Marianne StebbinsHouse District 33B covers many of the communities surrounding Lake Minnetonka and parts of the city of Chanhassen in the southwestern suburbs. This long-time Republican stronghold elected their first DFLer in 2018 when Doctor Kelly Morrison unseated Rep. Cindy Pugh. Overall turnout could be a predictor of Republican enthusiasm in these types of suburban districts the GOP needs to win in 2020.
Myers, a Minnetonka Beach City Councilmember and attorney in private practice, received the Republican endorsement, but both candidates are well financed and running aggressive Primary campaigns. Stebbins, from Mound, is a small business owner and active in the liberty wing of the Republican Party, including work on behalf of Ron Paul's previous Presidential campaign. Myers has been the subject of some independent expenditures by Action 4 Liberty, attacking his fiscal record on the City Council. Both candidates are running to the right on GOP bread-and-butter issues, with Myers taking an especially strong position opposed to Governor Walz's approach to dealing with COVID-19. HD38A: Donald Raleigh vs. Doug Malsom vs. Kelly GundersonHouse District 38A is centered on the city of Lino Lakes and includes all or parts of several other northeast metro cities. Rep. Linda Runbeck announced her retirement causing the three candidates to file to replace her. It has been a strong Republican district for a long-time, but like other suburban communities, the DFL made some in-roads in 2018. On paper this remains a GOP district, but could be in a tossup category if the district experienced a second similarly sized shift in 2020.
Donald Raleigh received Runbeck's and the Republican Party's endorsement and is the hands down favorite to win this Primary. Malsom, a military vet, like Raleigh, who has aligned himself with the breakaway more conservative New House Republican Caucus, has also raised and spent several thousand dollars on the primary and is expected to be the runner-up. Gunderson officially suspended her campaign in early July, but remains on the ballot. HD55A: Erik Mortensen vs. Bob LoonanHouse District 55A is the city of Shakopee and two neighboring townships in Scott County. This is a rematch of the 2018 Primary where Erik Mortensen defeated incumbent Rep. Bob Loonan with 58% of the vote. The winner of the primary will go on to face Rep. Brad Tabke in November, whose defeat of Mortensen in the 2018 general election was one of that year's bigger surprise results.
Loonan has been pointing to Mortensen's general election loss as a reason to return to himself as the GOP nominee, while Mortensen continues his 2018 attacks on Loonan for a perceived lack of conservative bona-fides. Mortensen won all but one of the precincts within Shakopee and Loonan also carried the two townships by narrow margins. Loonas had received a DUI shortly before the 2018 primary, but that appears to have receded from the forefront of the campaign this time around. |