The 2020 MN Primary on August 11 is expected to produce very low turnout, especially after the historically high turnout in the 2018 Primary, which featured competitive elections in both the Republican and DFL Gubernatorial races. Other than the election in CD5 between Representative Ilhan Omar and Antone Melton-Meaux, this election lacks any high profile and expensive races above the legislative level. So, this guide seeks to help observers know what to watch for as primary results roll in.
DFL incumbents running against endorsed candidates:
Three DFL incumbents lost their endorsement to challengers this Spring, as the DFL shifted to mostly on-line conventions.
SD7: Senator Erik Simonson vs. Jen McEwen
Senate District 7 is wholly within the city of Duluth, and all but two city precincts are in the district. Senator Simonson has served one term in the Senate and prior to that served two terms in the House from the western B-side of this district. He is endorsed by many labor unions, especially within the building trades. Jen McEwen is an attorney and activist in environmental circles, particularly involved in opposition to proposed copper mines in Northeastern Minnesota.
While projected to have much lower turnout, this primary could echo some of what Duluth saw in the 2018 Primaries where Michelle Lee for Congress and Erin Murphy for Governor ran in the mid-40s and won the district. Murphy, in particular, ran stronger in the eastern A-side of the district which also turned out in larger margins. If looking at precinct level results, the A-side includes roughly precincts 1-17 with the B-side including the higher numbered precincts. The east (A-side) of the district faces Lake Superior while the B-side faces the Duluth harbor and St. Louis River. The A-side is generally more white-collar and prosperous and the B-side is historically the industrial side of town (and the half of the district Simonson has represented longer). To win, Simonson should be looking for heavy turnout and vote margins on the B-side.
(Disclosure: The Northeast ALC is a client of No Coast Workshop, including preparing some independent expenditure mail on behalf of Senator Simonson. In addition, Andy Pomroy has worked with Senator Simonson through a previous employer, the Lake Superior Zoo,)
While projected to have much lower turnout, this primary could echo some of what Duluth saw in the 2018 Primaries where Michelle Lee for Congress and Erin Murphy for Governor ran in the mid-40s and won the district. Murphy, in particular, ran stronger in the eastern A-side of the district which also turned out in larger margins. If looking at precinct level results, the A-side includes roughly precincts 1-17 with the B-side including the higher numbered precincts. The east (A-side) of the district faces Lake Superior while the B-side faces the Duluth harbor and St. Louis River. The A-side is generally more white-collar and prosperous and the B-side is historically the industrial side of town (and the half of the district Simonson has represented longer). To win, Simonson should be looking for heavy turnout and vote margins on the B-side.
(Disclosure: The Northeast ALC is a client of No Coast Workshop, including preparing some independent expenditure mail on behalf of Senator Simonson. In addition, Andy Pomroy has worked with Senator Simonson through a previous employer, the Lake Superior Zoo,)
SD62: Senator Jeff Hayden vs. Omar Fateh
Senate District 62 in central South Minneapolis is the densest district in the state (6 square miles compared to the least dense, Senate District 3, which covers almost 13,000 square miles in the Arrowhead region). It is the district where George Floyd was murdered on May 25th and the site of much of the protests and civil unrest that ensued. Senator Hayden has served in the Senate for nine years, and served three years in the House prior to that. Omar Fateh has worked in state and local government and ran unsuccessfully for the House in the northern A-side of this district two years ago (finishing third in a field of five candidates).
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The district has a slim majority of white residents (likely a slightly higher percentage of the eligible and likely voters) as well as large populations of African-American and Latinx residents. One-quarter of residents were foreign born, mostly from Latin America and East Africa. Turnout should be up in this district, benefiting from the CD5 Primary as well as a special election for City Council in Ward 6, which shares five precincts with this district - including some of the more heavily populated East African neighborhoods. Fateh will look to replicate the successful model for several other East African candidates of promoting heavy absentee voting out of the immigrant populations, while also benefiting from the DFL endorsement and any communications the party has made on his behalf. Hayden will look for strong turnout on the southern B-side; which he had represented in the House and which includes the historical heart of South Minneapolis African-American community as well as the site of George Floyd's murder. Hayden has been particularly visible in the legislative efforts around police reform and rebuilding support which could give him a boost.
(Disclosure: Senator Hayden has been a longtime client of No Coast Workshop, having done the mail for his winning Senate Special Election in 2011.)
(Disclosure: Senator Hayden has been a longtime client of No Coast Workshop, having done the mail for his winning Senate Special Election in 2011.)
HD59B: Representative Ray Dehn vs. Esther Agbaje (and Isaiah Whitmore)
House District 59B is made up of most of Downtown Minneapolis, the North Loop, and several neighborhoods on the Northside. While seen as a North Minneapolis district, the population has shifted significantly towards the downtown and North Loop portions; 60% of registered voters now live in those precincts. Representative Ray Dehn has served four terms in the State House and was an unsuccessful candidate for Minneapolis Mayor in 2017, finishing second of the five major candidates. Esther Agbaje is an attorney and would be the first Downtown Minneapolis resident elected to the legislature in quite some time.
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The candidates have overlapping constituencies that do not always fall on the geographic lines and splits within this district, so it is difficult to predict a precinct by precinct breakdown of what to look for. Dehn also faced a competitive primary in 2018 and won every precinct in Wards 3 and 7 (Downtown and North Loop) while losing every precinct in Wards 5 and 6 (Northside and Elliot Park). But with Agbaje living and working downtown while Dehn has been a long Northside resident, that could flip to some extent. The presence of a third, less known and less financed candidate on the ballot could benefit Dehn as most primaries are first a referendum on the incumbent and Dehn may need Whitmore to pull enough anti-Dehn votes away from Agbaje to prevail.
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