The 2020 MN Primary on August 11 is expected to produce very low turnout, especially after the historically high turnout in the 2018 Primary, which featured competitive elections in both the Republican and DFL Gubernatorial races. Other than the election in CD5 between Representative Ilhan Omar and Antone Melton-Meaux, this election lacks any high profile and expensive races above the legislative level. So, this guide seeks to help observers know what to watch for as primary results roll in.
Congressional Primaries
CD5: DFL
A lot has been written about the CD5 DFL Primary between Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and Antone Melton-Meaux (and three other candidates). When looking at primary results, it may be helpful to compare these results to the 2018 primary when Omar defeated former Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher (MAK), Senator Patricia Torres Ray (PTR), and three other candidates. The district can be broken up into two unequal sections, the Minneapolis precincts accounted for 68% of total votes and the suburban precincts accounted for the remaining 32%. In the high turnout 2018 election, Omar won Minneapolis with 52.8% compared to 25.5% for MAK and 13.5% for Torres Ray. MAK, however, carried the suburbs with 41.0% compared to Omar's 38.2% and PTR's 11.9%.
Melton-Meaux supporters may look at these figures with an optimistic eye, given Omar received less than 50% two years ago, but it should be noted that rarely does a candidate consolidate all of the opposition vote for a subsequent election, and Omar now has all the advantages of incumbency. The addition of multiple heavily contested primaries for the legislature in Minneapolis and no statewide competitive primaries will also likely lead to relative turnout boosts in some of Omar's best precincts. If Melton-Meaux is not winning suburban precincts by at least a 2:1 margin, his chances are slim to unseat Omar.
Melton-Meaux supporters may look at these figures with an optimistic eye, given Omar received less than 50% two years ago, but it should be noted that rarely does a candidate consolidate all of the opposition vote for a subsequent election, and Omar now has all the advantages of incumbency. The addition of multiple heavily contested primaries for the legislature in Minneapolis and no statewide competitive primaries will also likely lead to relative turnout boosts in some of Omar's best precincts. If Melton-Meaux is not winning suburban precincts by at least a 2:1 margin, his chances are slim to unseat Omar.
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2018 Omar % by city
Columbia Heights 41.61% Fridley 35.10% Hilltop 36.59% Spring Lake Park 30.94% Brooklyn Center 32.77% Crystal 40.51% Edina 39.04% Fort Snelling 20.00% |
Golden Valley 31.25% Hopkins 42.51% Minneapolis 52.83% New Hope 34.80% Richfield 38.19% Robbinsdale 45.22% Saint Anthony 38.56% Saint Louis Park 41.03% |
Other Districts
There are DFL & Republican primaries for the US Senate, CD3, CD4,& CD7 as well as Republican primaries in CD6 & CD7. None of those are expected to be competitive with the incumbents/endorsed candidates favored to win each race. The one of these to watch could be the Republican primary in CD7 where two-time GOP nominee Dave Hughes lost the endorsement this time around to Michelle Fichbach, who many state and national Republicans are hoping can unseat incumbent DFL Rep. Collin Peterson in one of the most Republican Congressional Districts anywhere in the country that is represented by a Democrat.